La efectividad de la Política Fiscal en el Perú: 1980-2006
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2008
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía
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El objetivo de este trabajo es establecer la conexión entre la política fiscal y el nivel de actividad económica. En el plano teórico, a través de un modelo que vincula la política fiscal con el nivel de actividad económica y que fusiona los efectos contractivos o expansivos de una expansión fiscal, en función al estado inicial de las finanzas públicas. En el plano empírico, para el periodo 1980-2006, poniendo a prueba las predicciones que se derivan del modelo teórico. Los resultados encontrados sugieren que en el periodo 1980–1990, caracterizado por la fragilidad de las finanzas públicas, el efecto de la política fiscal es débil; mientras que en el periodo 1990–2006, período de fortalecimiento de las finanzas públicas, la potencia de la política fiscal es mayor.
The aim of this document is to establish the relationship between fiscal policy and the level of economic activity. On the theoretical ground, this is done using a model that links fiscal policy with economic activity, mixing the contractive and/or expansionary effects of a fiscal expansion, given the initial situation of fiscal accounts. On the empirical ground, this is done for the period 1980-2006, testing the predictions produced by the theoretical model. The main results suggest that during the period 1980-1990, characterized by the fragility of the fiscal accounts, fiscal policy had a weak effect on the level of economic activity, whereas during the period 1990-2006, considered of improvement of fiscal accounts, the effect of fiscal policy is stronger.
The aim of this document is to establish the relationship between fiscal policy and the level of economic activity. On the theoretical ground, this is done using a model that links fiscal policy with economic activity, mixing the contractive and/or expansionary effects of a fiscal expansion, given the initial situation of fiscal accounts. On the empirical ground, this is done for the period 1980-2006, testing the predictions produced by the theoretical model. The main results suggest that during the period 1980-1990, characterized by the fragility of the fiscal accounts, fiscal policy had a weak effect on the level of economic activity, whereas during the period 1990-2006, considered of improvement of fiscal accounts, the effect of fiscal policy is stronger.
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Finanzas publicas--Perú--1980-2006, Política fiscal--Perú--1980-2006
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