Acuerdos comerciales preferenciales y las exportaciones agroindustriales en el Perú (1994-2019): una aplicación del modelo de gravedad
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2021-04-12
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
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La presente investigación se efectuó para analizar el impacto de las tasas
preferenciales con China, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, en las
exportaciones agroindustriales peruanas (no tradicional) en el periodo 1994-
2019. Por consiguiente, se emplea la metodología propuesta por Cardamone
(2007) que emplea la ecuación de la gravedad para un análisis disgregado en
función a algunos productos. En este caso, se analiza 5 productos,
aprovechando los datos desagregados a 10 dígitos del sistema armonizado
(HS0), los cuales pertenecen al nivel de subpartida nacional. Los productos
mencionados mantienen un crecimiento alto de exportación. Asimismo, se
aplicará el procedimiento de estimación de Santos Silva y Tenreyro (2006): la
regresión de Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Una de las
principales conclusiones sobresale que la reducción de las tasas preferenciales
genera efectos positivos, que motivan el incremento de las exportaciones en el
sector agropecuario no tradicional. En este caso, en los principales productos de
exportación: uvas, espárragos, arándanos, mangos y paltas. Asimismo, se ha
hallado, en función a los hechos estilizados, que hay un aumento representativo
de exportaciones en la subpartida de arándanos rojos desde el 2013 el cual
coincide con la entrada en vigencia del TLC con la Unión Europea. También, hay
una constancia de aumento en las exportaciones, en los tres principales destinos
de exportación, de las subpartidas de los productos: uvas y espárragos. En ese
sentido, se mantiene la idea que los acuerdos comerciales contribuyen al
aumento del flujo comercial (OMC 2015).
This research was carried out to analyze the impact of preferential rates with China, the United States and the European Union, on Peruvian agro-industrial exports (non-traditional) in the period 1994-2019. Consequently, the methodology proposed by Cardamone (2007) is used, which uses the gravity equation for a disaggregated analysis based on some products. In this case, 5 products are analyzed, taking advantage of the data disaggregated to 10 digits of the harmonized system (HS0), which belong to the national subheading level. The mentioned products maintain a high export growth. Likewise, the estimation procedure of Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) will be applied: Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regression. One of the main conclusions stands out that the reduction of preferential rates generates positive effects, which motivate the increase in exports in the non-traditional agricultural sector. In this case, in the main export products: grapes, asparagus, blueberries, mangoes and avocados. Likewise, it has been found, based on the stylized facts, that there is a representative increase in exports in the subheading of cranberries since 2013, which coincides with the entry into force of the FTA with the European Union. Also, there is a record of increase in exports, in the three main export destinations, of the product subheadings: grapes and asparagus. In this sense, the idea is maintained that trade agreements contribute to an increase in trade flow (OMC 2015).
This research was carried out to analyze the impact of preferential rates with China, the United States and the European Union, on Peruvian agro-industrial exports (non-traditional) in the period 1994-2019. Consequently, the methodology proposed by Cardamone (2007) is used, which uses the gravity equation for a disaggregated analysis based on some products. In this case, 5 products are analyzed, taking advantage of the data disaggregated to 10 digits of the harmonized system (HS0), which belong to the national subheading level. The mentioned products maintain a high export growth. Likewise, the estimation procedure of Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) will be applied: Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) regression. One of the main conclusions stands out that the reduction of preferential rates generates positive effects, which motivate the increase in exports in the non-traditional agricultural sector. In this case, in the main export products: grapes, asparagus, blueberries, mangoes and avocados. Likewise, it has been found, based on the stylized facts, that there is a representative increase in exports in the subheading of cranberries since 2013, which coincides with the entry into force of the FTA with the European Union. Also, there is a record of increase in exports, in the three main export destinations, of the product subheadings: grapes and asparagus. In this sense, the idea is maintained that trade agreements contribute to an increase in trade flow (OMC 2015).
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Productos no tradicionales--Exportaciones--Perú, Perú--Tratados comerciales--Estados Unidos, Perú--Tratados comerciales--China, Perú--Tratados comerciales--Unión Europea, Tratados--Libre comercio--Perú