Some Statistical Results from the Triangulation of Electromagnetic Precursors Occurring at the Subduction Zone, Related with Earthquake Activity in Central Peru

Abstract

The use of electromagnetic unipolar pulses, radiated spontaneously by the effect of enormous pressure in the subduction zone, for the study of the Earth's crust and eventually leading to the forecast of future earthquakes, has recently completed a decade of research at PUCP. At the beginning, with one, then two and followed by up to ten stations deployed in three distinct areas of the Peruvian coast, data gathering and especially related to nearby earthquakes, was a rather slow process. After all these years of reporting our achievements through various papers and presentations while dealing with the scarce data coming from our limited number of magnetometer stations in Peru, we have accumulated enough cases to start a more substantial statistical analysis. Many cases of successful forecast of seismic occurrences, allowed to build up software to automatically estimate the occurrence of small earthquakes in the Lima area with 10 to 18 days lead time and be off by a few hours and magnitudes within 0.1 magnitude. This presentation, with a video complement to illustrate better the process of the “building up” of energy that will end up, in a few weeks' time, in a future earthquake, gives a first idea of the consistency of the method, applied now so daily forecast reports are obtained on a regular basis. Over a time period of almost eight years, the system allows us to get a first glance of the statistics and helps us to better understand the role of electric charges in an early warning system.