Volumen 42 Número 83 (2019)
URI permanente para esta colecciónhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/175938
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Ítem Texto completo enlazado Gender Differences in Cognitive Abilities Among the Elderly Poor of Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16) Novella, Rafael; Olivera, JavierWe study gender differences on cognitive functioning among older adults living in poverty. The data come from the Survey of Health and Wellbeing of the Elderly (ESBAM) which is the baseline survey to evaluate the Peru’s social pension program Pension 65. The results show that females are better off than males regarding episodic memory, but worse off in mental intactness. We do not find gender differences in the overall measure of cognition, but regional differences matter in favour of urban localities. The sizeable associations of education and quality of childhood nutrition with later-life cognition confirm the long-term impacts of early life developments on current outcomes, particularly in the case of females. Therefore, policies aimed at improving early childhood development are expected to have a positive impact in the quality of old-age.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Breaks, Trends and the Attribution of Climate Change: A Time-Series Analysis(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16) Estrada, Francisco; Perron, PierreClimate change detection and attribution have been the subject of intense research and debate over at least four decades. However, direct attribution of climate change to anthropogenic activities using observed climate and forcing variables through statistical methods has remained elusive, partly caused by difficulties to correctly identify the time-series properties of these variables and by the limited availability of methods to relate nonstationary variables. This paper provides strong evidence concerning the direct attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions by first investigating the univariate time-series properties of observed global and hemispheric temperatures and forcing variables and then by proposing statistically adequate multivariate models. The results show that there is a clear anthropogenic fingerprint on both global and hemispheric temperatures. The signal of the well-mixed Greenhouse Gases (GHG) forcing in all temperature series is very clear and accounts for most of their secular movements since the beginning of observations. Both temperature and forcing variables are characterized by piecewise linear trends with abrupt changes in their slopes estimated to occur at different dates. Nevertheless, their long-term movements are so closely related that the observed temperature and forcing trends cancel out. The warming experimented during the last century was mainly due to the increase in GHG which was partially offset by the effect of tropospheric aerosols. Other forcing sources, such as solar, are shown to only contribute to (shorter-term) variations around the GHG forcing trend.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Can Capital-Skill Complementarity Explain the Rising Skill Premium in Developing Countries? Evidence from Peru in the 1990s(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16) Mazumdar (†), Joy; Quispe-Agnoli, MyriamThe unsettled discussion continues about the factors behind the increase in the relative wages of skilled workers in developing countries. Using data from Peru for the years 1994 to 2000, we analyze the determinants of within-industry share of skilled workers. We use a translog cost function for gross output and are therefore able to incorporate the effects of materials, both domestic and imported, in addition to capital. We find that capital accumulation can explain a large fraction of the increase in the wage bill share and relative wages of skilled labor. This finding is contrary to the commonly held view that unobservable technological change is responsible for the rising skill premium in both developing and developed economies. A test for separability indicates that a gross output cost function is the appropriate one to use, and therefore share equations based on value-added cost functions could be misspecified.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Do Market Prices Reflect Real Scarcity? Theories and Facts(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16) Figueroa, AdolfoDo market relative prices reflect real scarcity of resources? If this were so, market prices would provide society with the correct signals about real scarcities. Economics—the science of scarcity— has different answers to this question. Following the principles of current epistemology, the paper reviews three theories of markets: neoclassical, bio-economics, and unified theory, analyzing their assumptions, their derived empirical predictions about the relation between market prices and scarcity, and their validity when confronted against known basic facts. Clarifying misconceptions about the nature and the role of the market mechanism in the functioning of capitalism is the expected contribution of the paper.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Presentation(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16) Rodriguez, GabrielNo presenta resumenÍtem Texto completo enlazado Threshold Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails: A Bayesian Approach(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16) Abanto-Valle, Carlos A.; Garrafa-Aragón, Hernán B.This paper extends the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model specification proposed in So et al. (2002) and Chen et al. (2008) by incorporating thick-tails in the mean equation innovation using the scale mixture of normal distributions (SMN). A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to estimate all the parameters and latent variables. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework are considered. The MCMC-based method exploits a mixture representation of the SMN distributions. The proposed methodology is applied to daily returns of indexes from BM&F BOVESPA (BOVESPA), Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (MERVAL), Mexican Stock Exchange (MXX) and the Standar & Poors 500 (SP500). Bayesian model selection criteria reveals that there is a significant improvement in model fit for the returns of the data considered here, by using the THSV model with slash distribution over the usual normal and Student-t models. Empirical results show that the skewness can improve VaR and ES forecasting in comparison with the normal and Student-t models.