(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2012) Rodríguez, Efraín
Linguistic barriers in education?: the influence of the language in school desertionThe present work has as its objective to evaluate the effect of having a native language different than Spanish over the probability of abandoning basic schooling. For that purpose a proportional risk duration model (Cox) and an accelerated fail time model are used, using information from 2008 and 2009 ENAHO, as well as 2007 Censo Escolar. In both models we find a positive effect over the probability of leaving primary studies when having Quechua as a native language. The results, for the case of the Quechua speakers, can show part of the effectiveness of the intercultural and bilingual education program (programa de Educación Intercultural Bilingüe or EIB in Spanish) for the reduction of inequality in the process of human capital accumulation
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2012) Rivera, Iván
Poverty Microeconomics: The Peruvian caseThe microeconomic analysis of poverty in Peru shows the following results. First, poverty is mainly explained by the income of the poor which is not only low, but also highly unstable. Second, poverty is related to the poor’s bad decision making due to incomplete information, intertemporal inconsistency and or lack of self control, mainly in the saving, borrowing, preventive health, fertility and education decisions. Third, poverty depends of the external constraints the poor face in some markets where they are marginalized from automatic decision making, in health insurance, pensions, vaccines, water and sanitation. Fourth, the poor face more and bigger risks than the rest of the population. They have higher probability to fall in poverty traps than higher income groups, because their income is low and unstable and they lack thefinancial and institutional backing to buffer income fluctuations. Fifth, to combat poverty we have to modulate the poor’s decision through information diffusion and the use of mechanisms of behavioral economics such as framing and nudging decisions in health, education, insurance, pensions, etc. to induce good decision making and avoid procrastination. To improve the quality of education, health, nutrition services and social services we have to empower the users as well as strengthen the accountability of the providers. Private sector participation in the provision of social services should be promoted. The promotion of formal firms in the regions of extreme poverty, such as mining firms and related activities has shown proven results as a mechanism of rising and stabilizing the incomes of the poor.
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2012) Coatsworth, John H.
Inequality, institutions and economic growth in Latin AmericaThis essay examines three recent historical approaches to the political economy of Latin America’s relative economic backwardness. All three locate the origins of contemporary underdevelopment in defective colonial institutions linked to inequality. The contrasting view offered here affirms the significance of institutional constraints, but argues that they did not arise from colonial inequalities, but from the adaptation of Iberian practices to the American colonies under conditions of imperial weakness. Colonial inequality varied across the Americas; while it was not correlated with colonial economic performance, it mattered because it determined the extent of elite resistance to institutional modernization after independence. The onset of economic growth in the mid to late nineteenth century brought economic elites to political power, but excluding majorities as inequality increased restrained the region’s twentieth-century growth rates and prevented convergence
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2012) Perron, Pierre; Rodríguez, Gabriel
Extendemos los estadísticos tipo M para una raíz unitaria analizados por Perron y Ng (1996) y Ng y Perron (2001) al caso donde se permite que el cambio en la función de tendencia ocurra en un punto desconocido. Estos estadísticos (MGLS) adoptan el enfoque GLS para eliminar la tendencia desarrollado por Elliott et al. (1996) (ERS) siguiendo los resultados de Dufour y King (1991). Siguiendo a Perron (1989), consideramos dos modelos: uno que permite un cambio en la pendiente y otro que permite tanto un cambio en el intercepto como en la pendiente. Derivamos las distribuciones asintóticas así como el estadístico óptimo factible en un punto de la hipótesis alternativa (PT GLS) sugerido por ERS. También computamos el parámetro de no centralidad utilizado por el enfoque GLS local a la unidad con el fin de eliminar la tendencia que permite que el estadístico PT GLS tenga 50% de potencia asintótica en ese valor. Asimismo, se han tabulado los valores críticos asintóticos de los estadísticos. Mostramos que los estadísticos MGLS y PT GLS tienen una función de potencia asintótica cercana a la envolvente de potencia. Un estudio de simulación analiza el tamaño y potencia en muestras finitas bajo varios métodos para seleccionar la truncación para estimar la densidad espectral autorregresiva. Finalmente, también se presenta una aplicación empírica.
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2012) Perova, Elizaveta; Vakis, Renos
Cinco años del programa Juntos: Nuevas evidencias sobre sus impactos de corto y largo plazoEste estudio presenta resultados de la evaluación de impacto cuantitativo del programa de transferencias de dinero condicionales Juntos, aplicado en el Perú. Usando técnicas de variables instrumentales, se estima el impacto promedio del programa cinco años, desde su inicio, y explora los impactos diferenciados entre los beneficiarios, dependiendo de su tiempo de permanencia en el programa. Al hacer esto, el análisis explora si se necesita de tiempo para que el programa tenga impacto significativo, y si la magnitud del impacto depende de la estancia de los beneficiarios en el programa. Los resultados parecen confirmar ambas hipótesis: casi todos los indicadores de interés son significativamente más altos entre los beneficiarios con mayor tiempo en el programa.Sin embargo, en muchos casos estas mejoras son muy pequeñas como para ser tomadas en cuenta en el análisis de los efectos promedio, cuando los beneficiarios son comparados con los no beneficiarios. Estos descubrimientos sugieren que mientras el programa tenga un impacto poco significativo en el bienestar, hay espacio para mejorar.
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2012) Tello, Mario D.
Price-cost margins, external competition and participation of the market in the manufacturing sector in Peru: 2002-2007This paper analyzes the validity of four hypotheses on the relationship between the price-cost margin and import penetration as well as firms’ market concentration for a sample of Peruvian firms of the manufacturing sector in period 2002-2007. The first hypothesis states that an increase in the degree of import penetration reduces firms’ price-cost margins. The second hypothesis states that such a negative impact of the import penetration is greater the higher is firms’ concentration ratios. The third hypothesis propose the negative impact of import penetration is reduced the higher is firms’ concentration ratios. The fourth hypothesis states that the positive effect of a firm’ share of the market is decreasing. The evidence in the Peruvian case reject the first and third hypotheses and accept the other two.