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URI permanente para esta colecciónhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/124142
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Ítem Acceso Abierto Regime-Switching, Stochastic Volatility, Fiscal Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-09) Rodríguez, Gabriel; Santisteban, JosephFollowing Chan and Eisenstat (2018a), we use a family of regime-switching models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV) to analyze the evolution of fiscal shocks impacts on Peru's economic growth from 1995Q1 to 2019Q4. Key findings include: (i) identification of two distinct economic regimes with different macroeconomic fundamentals tied to improvements in fiscal and monetary policy; (ii) enhanced model fi with the inclusion of stochastic volatility; (iii) a positive trend in the size of spending multipliers, though they remain below unity; (iv) during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, capital expenditure shocks mitigated the decline in economic growth by 2 percentage points, highlighting their counter-cyclical potential. These findings are corroborated by robustness checks, which include changes in priors, variable reordering, adjustments in external and demand variables, and extending the sample to 2022Q4 to encompass the COVID-19 crisis.Ítem Acceso Abierto Regime-Switching, stochastic volatilty and impacts of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-08) Alvarado Silva, Paola; Cáceres Quispe, Moisés; Rodríguez, GabrielThis paper utilizes regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact and evolution of monetary policy shocks and their contribution to the dynamics of GDP growth, inflation, and the interest rate in Peru for the period from 1994Q3 to 2019Q4. The main findings are: (i) the best-fifting models incorporate only SV; (ii) there are two distinct regimes coinciding with the implementation of the inflation targeting (IT) scheme; (iii) the volatility of GDP growth and inflation began to decrease in the early 1990s, while interest rate volatility declined following IT implementation; and (iv) pre-IT, monetary policy shocks accounted for 15%, 30%, and 90% of the forecast error variance decomposition for in ation, GDP growth, and the interest rate in the long term, respectively. Following IT adoption, monetary policy ceased to be a source of uncertainty for the economy. These results are robust to changes in priors, domestic and external variables, the number of regimes, and the ordering and number of variables of the model.Ítem Acceso Abierto Modeling the trend, persistence, and volatility of inflation in Pacific Alliance countries: an empirical application using a model with inflation bands(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-02) Rodríguez, Gabriel; Surco, LuisThis paper estimates and analyzes the dynamics of trend inflation, as well as the persistence and volatility of the inflation gap in the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). For this purpose, the econometric approach is based on methodologies proposed by Stock and Watson (2007) and Chan et al. (2013). Among these, the AR-Trend-Bound model considers the implications of inflation targeting in estimating the unobserved components of inflation. The results indicate that this model effectively allocates most of the permanent component to trend inflation. Additionally, a decreasing trend in inflation in the 1990s, stabilization in the first two decades of the 21st century, and a growing trend inflation following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are observed in all four countries. The low levels of inflation gap persistence prior to the pandemic reflect the effectiveness of central banks in maintaining inflation close to its trend level. Finally, the volatility of the inflation gap identifies the “Great Moderation” of inflation, with increases in volatility during the pandemic reaching levels similar to those estimated in the 1990s.Ítem Acceso Abierto Time-Varying Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01) Alvarado, Mauricio; Rodríguez, GabrielThis article employs a family of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to estimate the impact of external financial uncertainty shocks on a set of macroeconomic variables in Peru for the period from 1996Q1 to 2022Q4. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) a simple VAR model with stochastic volatility is sufficient to capture uncertainty dynamics compared to TVP-VAR alternatives; (ii) uncertainty shocks have a negative and significant impact on private investment growth in the medium and long term; (iii) the impact on private investment growth is three times greater than that on GDP growth; (iv) uncertainty shocks behave like aggregate supply shocks, leading to an increase in the inflation rate; and (v) uncertainty shocks have stronger effects in scenarios characterized by unfavorable financial conditions.Ítem Acceso Abierto Modelling the volatility of commodities prices using a stochastic volatility model with random level shifts(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-03) Alvaro, Dennis; Guillén, Ángel; Rodríguez, GabrielWe use the approach of Qu and Perron (2013) for the modeling and inference of volatility of a set of commodity prices in the presence of level shifts of unknown timing, magnitude and frequency. The model has two features: (i) it is a stochastic volatility model comprising both a level shift and a short-memory process where the .rst component is modeled as a compounded binomial process while the second one is an AR(1) process; (ii) the model is estimated using Bayesian techniques in order to obtain posterior distributions of the parameters and the two latent components. We use six commodity series: agriculture, livestock, gold, oil, industrial metals and a general commodity index. All series cover the period from January 1983 until December 2013 in daily frequency. The results show that although the occurrence of a level shift is rare (about once every 1.5 or 1.8 years), this component clearly contributes most to the variation in the volatility. The half-life of a typical shock from the AR(1) component is short, on average 13 days. Furthermore, isolating the level shift component from the overall volatility indicates a stronger relationship between volatility and Peruvian business cycle movements.Ítem Acceso Abierto Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-01) Meléndez Holguín, Alexander; Rodríguez, GabrielThis study assesses the evolving impact of fiscal policy on Peru’s economic activity in 1993Q4-2018Q2 using unrestricted and restricted TVP-VAR-SV models according to the approach proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018a). The results indicate that SV inclusion is essential, although there is no clear evidence of time-varying parameters according to two Bayesian selection criteria. Shocks from current and capital spending growth have positive effects on GDP growth (0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, in response to a 1% increase in each variable); and play important roles in the forecast error variance decomposition (23% and 45%, respectively) and historical decompositon (14% and 25%, respectively). The impact of fiscal income shocks is weak throughout the period of the study. The current and capital spending multipliers grow in 1995Q1-2007Q4, but subsequently show lower values in 2008Q1-2018Q2. The study also finds that external shocks have a strong and positive impact on fiscal income growth (0.4%). Finally, the research includes multiple robustness exercises, which show few changes relative to the results obtained using the baseline model.Ítem Acceso Abierto Evolution of the exchange rate pass-throught into prices in Peru: an empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-05) Calero, Roberto; Rodríguez, Gabriel; Salcedo Cisneros, RodrigoWe use a set of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VARSV) to estimate the evolution of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices for Peru over 1995Q2-2019Q4. According to two Bayesian selection criteria, the best-fitting models allow most parameters and the variances of shocks to evolve over time. The results are divided into two parts: (i) the ERPTs into import and producer prices decline significantly since the end of the 1990s until 2008. However, since 2014 both ERPTs resurge considerably due to exchange rate depreciation associated with the end of Quantitative Easing (QE), falling commodity prices, and global political events. These findings are in line with recent literature using TVP-VARSV and emphasizing ERTP resurgence after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC); (ii) the ERPT into consumer prices declined steadily throughout the sample. This is in line with the existing literature and is explained by a low-inflation context under an Inflation Targeting (IT) regime and by strong Central Bank credibility. Finally, the results are robust to a set of sensitivity exercises, including changes in the variables associated with the external shock and domestic economic activity, as well as in the values of the priors; and an estimation of the ERPT for Colombia.Ítem Acceso Abierto Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-03) Rodríguez, Gabriel; Chávez, PauloThis article quantifies and analyzes the evolving impact of external shocks on Peru’s macroeconomic fluctuations in 1994Q1-2019Q4. For this purpose, we use a group of models with regimeswitching time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The data suggest a model with contemporaneous coefficients and constant lags and intercepts, but with regime-switching variances; and point to the existence of two regimes. The IRFs, FEVDs, and HDs show that: (i) China growth shocks have a higher impact on Peru’s output growth (around 0.8%); (ii) financial shocks contract domestic output growth by 0.3% and domestic monetary policy is synchronized with Fed rate movements; (iii) external shocks explain 35% and 70% of output fluctuations under regimes 1 and 2, respectively; and (iv) China growth shocks contributed 1.0 p.p. to the 1.1-p.p. increase (around 89%) in Peru’s output growth between regimes 1 and 2. Additionally, we validate these results by performing seven robustness exercises consisting in changing priors, reordering variables, changing variables, and using four different specications for the baseline model.Ítem Acceso Abierto Time evolution of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2022-03) Rodríguez, Gabriel; Vassallo, RenatoThis article provides empirical evidence on the evolution of the impact of external shocks on the macroeconomic dynamics of the Pacific Alliance (PA) countries. For this purpose, we estimate a family of VAR models that allows time variation (or constancy) of parameters, including the variance matrix (TVP-VAR-SV). The results suggest that: (i) fluctuations from China create the most significant and persistent responses: a 1% increase in China’s growth raises growth by 0.3%-0.4% during the first year in Chile, Colombia, and Mexico; and by 0.8% in Peru; (ii) responses to export price shocks evolve considerably over time; e.g., the impact on growth in Chile and Peru tripled in 1994-2009 and then moderated until 2019; and (iii) unexpected Fed rate increases result in significant increases in AP countries’ monetary policy rates, an effect that escalates during crisis periods and further deepens the negative impact on domestic output growth. Additionally, variance decomposition shows that external factors explained over 50% of deviations in the domestic variables considered in this work. In particular, the results show that external shock absorption over the sample is higher in Mexico and Peru. In contrast, the change in domestic dynamics in absence of external disturbances would have been milder in Chile and Colombia. Finally, we perform four robustness exercises, which imply the following modifications to the baseline model: (i) changing priors; (ii) modifying two external variables; (iii) using lowdimensional models (4, 5, and 6 variables); and (iv) expanding the model by adding a fiscal policy variable. The results do not change significantly relative to those found using the baseline model.Ítem Acceso Abierto Time-varying effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: an empirical application using TVP-VAR- SV models(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-03) Rodríguez, Gabriel; Ojeda A. Cunya, JuniorThis study uses a family of VAR models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on output growth and inflation in Peru in 1992Q1-2017Q1. The statistical relevance of the models is assessed using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the marginal log-likelihood calculated using the cross-entropy (CE) method. The results show that: (i) it is more relevant to introduce SV than TVP; i.e., the best fitting model admits only varying intercepts and SV; and TVP-VAR and CVAR are the least performing models; (ii) the models impulse response functions indicate that the impacts from external shocks are different under high inflation, economic crisis, and monetary policy change, with a greater impact in episodes of high uncertainty; (iii) the impact and importance of external shocks has increased over time; and (iv) the results are robust to changes in the priors, the lag structure, order of the variables, the external variable, and the variable for domestic economic activity.