El mercado de bienes y los mercados financieros en economías con sistema bancario dolarizado
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2004
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Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía
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La banca comercial privada y un mercado de moneda extranjera generalizado son las instituciones centrales que caracterizan el sistema financiero de muchos países latinoamericanos. En estas economías, las bolsas de valores no tienen todavía una gran importancia macroeconómica y los mercados para títulos emitidos por el gobierno está en pleno desarrollo. En este trabajo se presentará un modelo macroeconómico donde el centro del sistema financiero lo constituyen los bancos, éstos aceptan depósitos y otorgan créditos tanto en moneda nacional como en moneda extranjera, y los flujos de capitales de corto plazo tienen su origen en el endeudamiento externo de los bancos locales. El punto de partida de este tipo de modelos es el añejo modelo Mundell-Fleming, el cual permite vincular el sector real con el sistema financiero, en un mundo de apertura al comercio internacional de bienes y capitales financieros. En una economía donde las firmas y las familias tienen sus deudas dolarizadas, y si consideramos que la carga real de la deuda es un argumento del gasto privado, una devaluación, en un esquema de tipo de cambio fijo, o una política monetaria expansiva en un régimen de tipo de cambio flexible, pueden elevar el tipo de cambio real, elevar la carga real de la deuda y, si este efecto es más importante que el efecto Marshall-Lerner, la devaluación o la política monetaria expansiva pueden tener un efecto recesivo sobre el nivel de actividad económica.
The private commercial banking and a widespread foreign currency market are the central institutions that characterize the financial system of many Latin American countries. In these economies, the stock markets still don’t have a great macroeconomic importance and the markets for government issued bonds are is in the middle of their development. In this paper a macroeconomic model is presented where the core of the financial system is constituted by banks. Banks accept deposits and grant credits as much in domestic currency as in foreign currency, and the flows of short term capitals have their origin in the external indebtedness of the local banks. The starting point of this type of models is the old Mundell-Fleming, which allows us to link the real sector with the financial system, in a world opened to the international trade of goods and financial capitals. In an economy where the firms and the families have their debt in foreign currency, if we consider that the real load of the debt influences private expenditure, a devaluation, under a fixed exchange rate regime, or under an expanding monetary policy in a regimen of flexible exchange rate, can increase the real exchange rate, elevate the real load of the debt and, if this effect is more important than the Marshall-Lerner effect, the devaluation or the expansive monetary policy can have a recessive effect on the level of economic activity.
The private commercial banking and a widespread foreign currency market are the central institutions that characterize the financial system of many Latin American countries. In these economies, the stock markets still don’t have a great macroeconomic importance and the markets for government issued bonds are is in the middle of their development. In this paper a macroeconomic model is presented where the core of the financial system is constituted by banks. Banks accept deposits and grant credits as much in domestic currency as in foreign currency, and the flows of short term capitals have their origin in the external indebtedness of the local banks. The starting point of this type of models is the old Mundell-Fleming, which allows us to link the real sector with the financial system, in a world opened to the international trade of goods and financial capitals. In an economy where the firms and the families have their debt in foreign currency, if we consider that the real load of the debt influences private expenditure, a devaluation, under a fixed exchange rate regime, or under an expanding monetary policy in a regimen of flexible exchange rate, can increase the real exchange rate, elevate the real load of the debt and, if this effect is more important than the Marshall-Lerner effect, the devaluation or the expansive monetary policy can have a recessive effect on the level of economic activity.
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Mercado de capitales, Tipo de cambio
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