Economía. Volumen 47 Número 93 (2024)
URI permanente para esta colecciónhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/200244
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Ítem Texto completo enlazado Climate Risk Stress Test: Impact of Climate Change on the Peruvian Financial System(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-06-20) Romero, Daniel; Salinas, Juan Carlos; Talledo, JacquelineWe develop the first climate risk Stress Test for the Peruvian financial system following a topdown approach. Focusing on the microeconomic channel, we evaluate how heavy rainfall and droughts, under a scenario of pure physical risk, will marginally affect the probability of default (PD) of borrowers by 2050. Using information from the Credit Registry, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and CMIP6 precipitation projections (37 modeling groups), we calibrate the marginal impacts differentiating by economic sector and geographical location. We find that, on average, by December 2050, the probability of default of the Peruvian financial system would increase by 4.9% with respect to December 2020. By geographic area, borrowers located on the northern coast (Piura, Lambayeque) and the southern highlands (Ayacucho, Cusco) would be negatively affected by heavy rainfall, while the rainforest (Madre de Dios, Ucayali) would be negatively affected by droughts. Moreover, the economic sectors affected by heavy rainfall or droughts would be agriculture, commerce, and transportation & communications.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Peru 2020-2021: Household Income, Consumption, and Savings during the Pandemic(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-06-20) Francke, Pedro; Benites Garnique, JosuéPeru is among the countries hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing significant losses in terms of lives and well-being. This study examines the income, expenditure, and savings patterns of Peruvian households amidst the pandemic, with a focus on rural/urban and formal/informal differences. Additionally, we analyze shifts in consumption, particularly regarding food and health expenditures. Utilizing data from the National Household Survey (ENAHO), we conducted a multi-period analysis at the quarterly level spanning 2019-2021, with the prepandemic quarter as the reference point. Our findings reveal substantial disparities between rural and urban areas, as well as within these segments based on the formal or informal employment status of household heads, regarding income, expenses, savings, and shifts in consumption patterns. While all segments experienced income reductions, rural households recovered swiftly but maintained reduced food consumption. Formal workers experienced less income loss and did not dissave, whereas urban informal workers were most affected in terms of income and food deprivation. Finally, we discuss how these findings can inform public policy discussions in Peru, particularly related to social protection.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Savings, Investment, Terms of Trade, and Sustainability of the Internal Approach: 1993 - 2019(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-06-20) Villacampa Portuguez, Pablo LorenzoWelfare measures and their assessment involve a set of indicators that, as economic thought evolves, are subject to critique. Nonetheless, the ultimate debate focuses on the quality of life and the conditions fostered by each economy. Using data from the period 1993 to 2019, this paper presents an analysis of the current account and terms of trade, highlighting the significance of these variables, as they encompass important flows and contribute to shaping market conditions and the resulting benefits. The study employs both Vector Error Correction (VECM) and Structural Vector Error Correction (SVECM) models to explore the interplay between external dynamics and their effects on the economy. The findings reveal that an export price shock has an expansive effect on investment, yet its impact on savings becomes marginally significant over time. Unexpected shocks on investment are roughly 38% reliant on external factors, of which an average of 32% is attributable to export prices, underscoring the tight correlation between investment and international market dynamics. Notably, the results indicate that external dynamics primarily exert short-term effects. Consequently, despite periods of robust growth, reduced unemployment, and poverty reduction, these indicators have not proven to be sustainable in Peru.Ítem Texto completo enlazado From Cash to Deposits: Effects on Women’s Status andWell-being(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-06-20) Marquez-Padilla, Fernanda; Parker, Susan W.We study the short term effects of an experiment which transitioned conditional cash transfer beneficiaries from receiving benefits in cash at temporary payment modules to receiving benefits through account deposits on women’s status, work and financial inclusion. The experiment was implemented in the context of the Mexican Prospera program in 150 communities in the state of Hidalgo. Our results suggest an immediate and important positive impact of the transition to deposits on women’s control of resources in the household.Ítem Texto completo enlazado Presentation(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-06-20) Moreno, Rocío; León, JaninaNo presenta resumen