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dc.contributor.authorMeléndez Holguín, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez, Gabriel
dc.description.abstractThis study assesses the evolving impact of fiscal policy on Peru’s economic activity in 1993Q4-2018Q2 using unrestricted and restricted TVP-VAR-SV models according to the approach proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018a). The results indicate that SV inclusion is essential, although there is no clear evidence of time-varying parameters according to two Bayesian selection criteria. Shocks from current and capital spending growth have positive effects on GDP growth (0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, in response to a 1% increase in each variable); and play important roles in the forecast error variance decomposition (23% and 45%, respectively) and historical decompositon (14% and 25%, respectively). The impact of fiscal income shocks is weak throughout the period of the study. The current and capital spending multipliers grow in 1995Q1-2007Q4, but subsequently show lower values in 2008Q1-2018Q2. The study also finds that external shocks have a strong and positive impact on fiscal income growth (0.4%). Finally, the research includes multiple robustness exercises, which show few changes relative to the results obtained using the baseline model.es_ES
dc.publisherPontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economíaes_ES
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDocumento de Trabajo;516es_ES
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Perú*
dc.subjectFiscal Policyes_ES
dc.subjectFiscal Multiplieres_ES
dc.subjectVAR Model with Time-Varying Parameterses_ES
dc.subjectStochastic Volatilityes_ES
dc.subjectBayesian Estimationes_ES
dc.subjectPeruvian Economyes_ES
dc.titleEvolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV modelses_ES
dc.type.otherDocumento de trabajo

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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Perú
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Perú