Volumen 45 Número 89 (2022)

Recent Submissions

  • Is it Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation in Assessing the Trend in PCE Inflation? 

    Verbrugge, Randal (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    “Core” PCE inflation—that is, inflation in PCE-ex-food-and-energy—is widely used as an estimate of trend inflation. But it is long overdue for replacement. The original rationale of core inflation was to remove volatile ...

  • Implications of Endogenous Money Growth for Some Tests of Superneutrality and the Fisher Effect 

    Keating, John W. (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    Superneutrality of money and the Fisher Effect are well-known theoretical propositions. Empirical tests of long-run versions of these hypotheses have sometimes been done by estimating how a variable responds to a permanent ...

  • Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World 

    Forbes, Kristin J.; Gagnon, Joseph E.; Collins, Christopher G. (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is “low”—which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack ...

  • Presentation 

    Duncan, Roberto; Martínez-García, Enrique (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    No presenta resumen

  • Some Long-Run Correlations of Inflation in Developed Countries 

    West, Kenneth D.; Cao, Tu (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    Using 100+ years of data from 18 developed countries, we use a frequency domain technique to compute “long-run” correlations between inflation on the one hand and money growth and nominal interest rates on the other. The ...

  • Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within an Employment Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile 

    Medel, Carlos A. (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    This article aims to evaluate quantitative inflation forecasts for the Chilean economy, taking advantage of a specific survey of consumer perceptions at the individual microdata level, which, at the same time, is linked ...

  • Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing? 

    Coulter, Jarod; Duncan, Roberto; Martínez-García, Enrique (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, we document that U.S. inflation ...

  • A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability 

    Pincheira Brown, Pablo (Pontificia Universidad Católica del PerúPE, 2022-08-01)
    In this paper we introduce a “power booster factor” for out-of-sample tests of predictability. The relevant econometric environment is one in which the econometrician wants to compare the population Mean Squared Prediction ...