Departamentos

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En esta comunidad encontramos libros, fotografías, cuadernos de trabajo, y otros documentos generados en los distintas Departamentos Académicos de la universidad. Entre otros podemos encontrar la colección de revistas históricas deportivas del Perú (Ciencias Sociales), el Archivo Digital de Lenguas Peruanas (humanidades) las Guías del Grupo de Investigación en Adquisición del Lenguaje (GRIAL), libros de la Red Internacional de Estudios Interculturales (RIDEI); la colección Voces Peruanas del Vaticano II (Teología) y diversos libros, entrevistas y conferencias de interes en otro departamentos

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Author: search.filters.author.Rodriguez, Gabriel

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    External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01) Guevara, Brenda; Rodriguez, Gabriel; Yamuca Salvatierra, Lorena
    We employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 to 2019Q4. Our key findings are as follows: (i) the model best fitting the data features time-varying parameters and variances with a certain likelihood; (ii) impulse-response functions reveal that a 1% increase in the growth rate of Peru’s major trading partners (China and the U.S.) leads to a domestic GDP growth expansion of 0.65% and 0.21%, respectively; (iii) the forecast error variance decomposition shows that external shocks account for 65% of the long-term variability in output, 65% in inflation, and 67% in the interest rate; (iv) historical decomposition indicates that external shocks account for 50% of domestic GDP growth, particularly from 2002 onward. Lastly, we validate the results obtained in the primary specification through four robustness exercises
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    Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-08) Pérez Rojo, Flavio; Rodriguez, Gabriel
    We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR- SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatilities, intercepts, and contemporaneous coe cients change more gradually than VAR coe cients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks falls from 4% to 0.3% on average during the In ation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) in the long run, a contractionary MP shock decreases both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and in ation by 0.28% and 0.1%, respectively; (iv) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (v) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain almost 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, in ation, and the interest rate, respectively; and under the IT regime, all these percentages shrink to 1-2%. The sensitivity analysis con rms the robustness of the main results across various prior speci cations, measures of external and domestic variables, and recursive identi cations. In general, the results show that MP has contributed to diminishing macroeconomic volatility in Peru.