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En esta comunidad encontramos libros, fotografías, cuadernos de trabajo, y otros documentos generados en los distintas Departamentos Académicos de la universidad. Entre otros podemos encontrar la colección de revistas históricas deportivas del Perú (Ciencias Sociales), el Archivo Digital de Lenguas Peruanas (humanidades) las Guías del Grupo de Investigación en Adquisición del Lenguaje (GRIAL), libros de la Red Internacional de Estudios Interculturales (RIDEI); la colección Voces Peruanas del Vaticano II (Teología) y diversos libros, entrevistas y conferencias de interes en otro departamentos

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Author: search.filters.author.Guevara, BrendaSubject: search.filters.subject.Macroeconomic Fluctuations

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    External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01) Guevara, Brenda; Rodriguez, Gabriel; Yamuca Salvatierra, Lorena
    We employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 to 2019Q4. Our key findings are as follows: (i) the model best fitting the data features time-varying parameters and variances with a certain likelihood; (ii) impulse-response functions reveal that a 1% increase in the growth rate of Peru’s major trading partners (China and the U.S.) leads to a domestic GDP growth expansion of 0.65% and 0.21%, respectively; (iii) the forecast error variance decomposition shows that external shocks account for 65% of the long-term variability in output, 65% in inflation, and 67% in the interest rate; (iv) historical decomposition indicates that external shocks account for 50% of domestic GDP growth, particularly from 2002 onward. Lastly, we validate the results obtained in the primary specification through four robustness exercises