Departamento Académico de Economía
URI permanente para esta comunidadhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/124141
El Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú fue creado en agosto de 1969 y desde entonces el equipo de profesores que lo conforman se ha caracterizado tanto por su labor docente como por su dedicación permanente a la investigación de los temas relevantes para la sociedad y la economía peruana.
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Ítem Acceso Abierto Regime-Switching, stochastic volatilty and impacts of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-08) Alvarado Silva, Paola; Cáceres Quispe, Moisés; Rodríguez, GabrielThis paper utilizes regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact and evolution of monetary policy shocks and their contribution to the dynamics of GDP growth, inflation, and the interest rate in Peru for the period from 1994Q3 to 2019Q4. The main findings are: (i) the best-fifting models incorporate only SV; (ii) there are two distinct regimes coinciding with the implementation of the inflation targeting (IT) scheme; (iii) the volatility of GDP growth and inflation began to decrease in the early 1990s, while interest rate volatility declined following IT implementation; and (iv) pre-IT, monetary policy shocks accounted for 15%, 30%, and 90% of the forecast error variance decomposition for in ation, GDP growth, and the interest rate in the long term, respectively. Following IT adoption, monetary policy ceased to be a source of uncertainty for the economy. These results are robust to changes in priors, domestic and external variables, the number of regimes, and the ordering and number of variables of the model.Ítem Acceso Abierto External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01) Guevara, Brenda; Rodriguez, Gabriel; Yamuca Salvatierra, LorenaWe employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 to 2019Q4. Our key findings are as follows: (i) the model best fitting the data features time-varying parameters and variances with a certain likelihood; (ii) impulse-response functions reveal that a 1% increase in the growth rate of Peru’s major trading partners (China and the U.S.) leads to a domestic GDP growth expansion of 0.65% and 0.21%, respectively; (iii) the forecast error variance decomposition shows that external shocks account for 65% of the long-term variability in output, 65% in inflation, and 67% in the interest rate; (iv) historical decomposition indicates that external shocks account for 50% of domestic GDP growth, particularly from 2002 onward. Lastly, we validate the results obtained in the primary specification through four robustness exercisesÍtem Acceso Abierto El efecto del programa acompañamiento pedagógico sobre los rendimientos de los estudiantes de escuelas públicas rurales del Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-12) Rodríguez G., José S.; Leyva Zegarra, Janneth; Hopkins Barriga, ÁlvaroThe aim of the present study is to evaluate the effect of a teacher training program implemented by the Ministry of Education called Pedagogical Accompaniment on school performance and its main determinants. Using non-experimental impact evaluation techniques, measurements are made exploiting the test results of the Census Student Assessment of 2013. The results provide evidence of positive and statistically significant impacts. However, the size of these impacts is relatively moderate. Several hypotheses could explain the effect size. These are discussed in the paper. On the other hand, having a bachelor's degree instead of a pedagogical degree and multigrade experience favors significantly the positive results of the intervention.Ítem Acceso Abierto COVID-19 and gender differences in the labor market: evidence from the peruvian economy(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-07) Vaccaro, Giannina; Paredes, TaniaThe COVID-19 and its confinement measures have generated a severe economic contraction around the world. However, there is still no consensus on the magnitude of its immediate effects, particularly in developing countries. Analysts have emphasized not only human capital losses but also an economic recession and increase in economic and social inequalities, including gender differences. Despite the Latin America (LA) countries are most affected in terms of deaths, most studies focus on the impact of COVID-19 on developed countries. Using data from the National House- hold Surveys (ENAHO) from 2019-2021, we studied the impact of the COVID-19’S confinement measures on gender differences in the labor market in Peru, country with one of the biggest death rates. We found that the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdown measures accentuated gender inequality in labor market. Women have largely decreased the total hours worked than men, particularly due to the reduction of formal employment. More vulnerable women are low-skilled and those who have not worked remotely.Ítem Acceso Abierto Gender gap in pension savings: evidence from Peru’s individual capitalization system(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-06) Olivera, Javier; Iparraguirre, YadiraahWe study the gender gap in the accumulation of pension funds in Peru, a country where the main pension system is based on individual retirement accounts. We exploit randomly selected samples of administrative pension fund registers collected between 2005 and 2019 and find a gender gap in favour of men at each percentile of the distribution of pension funds. The unconditional gender gap decreases along the percentiles until it reaches a sort of “glass ceiling” around the 85th percentile, and then it increases substantially. We also detect heterogeneity by birth cohorts, indicating that older cohorts show higher gender gaps in pension saving because of the capitalization process. Moreover, we find that awareness about pension fund risk management –a proxy for financial literacy– increases the dispersion of pension savings over the distribution and, therefore, increases inequality. This situation is aggravated by the fact that Peru has very low levels of financial literacy.Ítem Acceso Abierto El impacto de políticas diferenciadas de cuarentena sobre la mortalidad por COVID-19: el caso de Brasil y Perú(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2021-10) Cozzubo, Angelo; Herrera, Javier; Razafindrakoto, Mireile; Roubaud, FrançoisSegún la Universidad Johns Hopkins, Brasil y el Perú se encuentran entre los cinco países con el mayor número de infectados en el mundo (octubre 2020) y donde la letalidad por COVID-19 ha sido de las más elevadas. Este estudio propone determinar el impacto del COVID-19 sobre la mortalidad, considerando las medidas de confinamiento, la pobreza y la movilidad residencial; ello contrastando Perú y Brasil como dos casos de políticas de emergencia contrarias. Para responder a la pregunta de investigación, el análisis emplea información de mortalidad de actualización diaria y desagregada a nivel municipal para ambos países. El análisis aplica un conjunto de medidas de relación y heterogeneidad espacial local y global entre los niveles de sobremortalidad subnacionales considerando datos armonizados. Complementariamente, se plantea un modelo de estudio de eventos de fallecimientos distritales para ambos países entre 2019-2020, y se miden impactos heterogéneos por edad, sexo, pobreza y movilidad residencial. El análisis espacial muestra que el patrón de muertes dista de ser aleatorio en el espacio; y que los hotspots de sobremortalidad comienzan en las “grandes ciudades” y se diseminan en el tiempo. Del mismo modo, el estudio de eventos muestra que el efecto no es lineal, sino que hay una evolución de corto y largo plazo de las muertes donde los grupos más afectados resultan ser los hombres y adultos mayores. Finalmente, considerando el caso de Lima, es posible verificar que la movilidad tiene un efecto significativo y positivo en la sobremortalidad, particularmente en distritos pobres, lo cual se condice con el final de la cuarentena.Ítem Acceso Abierto Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2019-12) Boca, Alexander; Rodríguez, GabrielPresidential approval in Peru depends on economic outcomes. However, voters are unable to distinguish between outcomes resulting from economic policies and those caused by exogenous shocks. Estimation results from seven Fractional Cointegrated VAR (FCVAR) models suggest that presidential approval increases with the monetary policy interest rate, the terms of trade, and manufacturing employment; and decreases with the nominal PEN/USD exchange rate and ináation volatility. Additionally, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) conducted over a large set of macroeconomic indicators points to a greater ináuence of external over domestic factors in explaining presidential approval; i.e., economic outcomes that determine the dynamics of presidential approval are not under presidential control in Peru. It can be argued that these Öndings identify a signiÖcant source of political instability and a considerable challenge to democratic governance. To the authorsíbest knowledge, this is the Örst application of fractional cointegration analysis to political economy in Latin America