Departamento Académico de Economía

URI permanente para esta comunidadhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/124141

El Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú fue creado en agosto de 1969 y desde entonces el equipo de profesores que lo conforman se ha caracterizado tanto por su labor docente como por su dedicación permanente a la investigación de los temas relevantes para la sociedad y la economía peruana.
Ingresa a su web: Departamento de Economía

Explorar

Filtros

20241

Ajustes

Autorsearch.filters.applied.operator.equals: search.filters.author.Rodriguez, GabrielTemasearch.filters.applied.operator.equals: search.filters.subject.Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Resultados de búsqueda

Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
  • Miniatura
    ÍtemAcceso Abierto
    External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01) Guevara, Brenda; Rodriguez, Gabriel; Yamuca Salvatierra, Lorena
    We employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 to 2019Q4. Our key findings are as follows: (i) the model best fitting the data features time-varying parameters and variances with a certain likelihood; (ii) impulse-response functions reveal that a 1% increase in the growth rate of Peru’s major trading partners (China and the U.S.) leads to a domestic GDP growth expansion of 0.65% and 0.21%, respectively; (iii) the forecast error variance decomposition shows that external shocks account for 65% of the long-term variability in output, 65% in inflation, and 67% in the interest rate; (iv) historical decomposition indicates that external shocks account for 50% of domestic GDP growth, particularly from 2002 onward. Lastly, we validate the results obtained in the primary specification through four robustness exercises