Economía

Permanent URI for this communityhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/175934

e-ISSN: 2304-4306

ECONOMÍA Journal was initially established as the “Revista Economía” of the Department of Economics of the Pontificia Universidad Católica of Peru (PUCP) in 1977. It is the oldest academic journal on economics in the country. Building on that legacy, ECONOMÍA has now been relaunched as an internationally refereed journal dedicated to publishing original academic research on economics in English, with an expanded and prestigious Editorial Board, as well as a large team of Associated Editors that guarantee the highest theoretical and methodological standards.

ECONOMÍA also offers a manuscript management platform that provides an eficient workflow among authors, associate editors and referees throughout the process of manuscript submission and evaluation. In this new stage, ECONOMÍA aspires to continue leading the progress of academic literature in the country as well as position itself in a prominent place in the Latin American region.

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Author: search.filters.author.de Luis López, Mercedes

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    A Short Term Forecasting Model for the Spanish GDP and its Demand Components
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2020-03-10) Arencibia Pareja, Ana; Gomez-Loscos, Ana; de Luis López, Mercedes; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
    This paper proposes a new version of the Spain-STING (Spain, Short-Term INdicator of Growth), a dynamic factor model used by the Banco de España for the short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy. The extended and revised version of the Spain-STING presented in this document includes a forecast for each of the demand components of the National Accounts. In order to select the indicators that best estimate the Spanish GDP and its demand components, several models are considered. Following this strategy, the selected models are those in which the common factor explains the highest proportion of the variance of the GDP. These models allow us to forecast GDP, private consumption, public expenditure, investment in capital goods, construction investment, exports and imports in a consistent way. We assess the predictive power of the models for GDP and its demand components for the period 2005–2017. With regard to the GDP forecast, we find some improvement of the predictive power compared to the previous version of Spain-STING. As for the demand components, we show that our proposal has better predictive power than other possible time series models.