Volumen 44 Número 88 (2021)
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/186802
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SPECIAL: Preferential Trade Agreements, Trade and Multilateral Liberalization
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Item Metadata only Conditional vs Unconditional Quantile Regression Models: A Guide to Practitioners(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2021-12-31) Alejo, Javier; Favata, Federico; Montes-Rojas, Gabriel; Trombetta, MartínThis paper analyzes two econometric tools that are used to evaluate distributional effects, conditional quantile regression (CQR) and unconditional quantile regression (UQR). Our main objective is to shed light on the similarities and differences between these methodologies. An interesting theoretical derivation to connect CQR and UQR is that, for the effect of a continuous covariate, the UQR is a weighted average of the CQR. This imposes clear bounds on the values that UQR coefficients can take and provides a way to detect misspecification. The key here is a match between CQR whose predicted values are the closest to the unconditional quantile. For a binary covariate, however, we derive a new analytical relationship. We illustrate these models using age returns and gender gap in Argentina for 2019 and 2020.Item Metadata only Trade Creation and Diversion Effects under the Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the United States: A Gravitational Analysis(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2021-12-31) Arrieta Padilla, Gabriel LewisThis paper is oriented to quantify the trade creation and diversion effects in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and the United States. For that purpose, using a disaggregated database at the 10-digit level for Peruvian goods with intervals of 3-years between 2002 and 2018, this article adopts a three-dummy variable methodology that allows the identification of intra-bloc and extra-bloc effects. In addition, a theoretically-founded gravity equation is employed with the incorporation of country-time and time-invariant fixed effects in order to solve common econometric specification problems, such as lack of multilateral resistance terms in modelling, heteroscedasticity of trade data, inclusion of zero trade flows, and endogeneity of trade policy. Estimating with the PPML method for the complete sample and among types of goods (group 1: raw materials and intermediate goods, and group 2: consumer and capital goods), the main results show that the Peru-US FTA generates intra-bloc trade creation for the entire sample and two groups of goods separately. In addition, the FTA produces export trade diversion for the complete sample and group 2, while import trade creation for both groups. In overall, the Peru-USA FTA is an “intra-bloc trade creation agreement” that boosted bilateral trade flows. These effects are considered in order to formulate some policy recommendations for improving the results of this Peruvian FTA.Item Metadata only Import competition in the manufacturing sector in Peru: Its impact on informality and wages(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2021-12-16) Morales, Fernando; Pierola, Martha Denisse; Sanchez-Navarro, DennisThis paper studies the impact of import competition from China on labor outcomes in the Peruvian manufacturing sector in 2001–2010. Using data from the Peruvian Household Survey, we use a two-step procedure to evaluate the impact of the surge in imports from China on the likelihood of having an informal job and on wages in both the formal and informal sectors. On the first step, the results suggest that greater import competition increased—albeit weakly—the likelihood of having an informal job for workers with elementary education. On the second step, we find that the surge in imports from China was detrimental to wages of the least educated individuals with informal jobs—with no education and elementary education—, although we also find that this result is mostly driven by the presence of self-employed among informal workers. We also observe a wage increase among workers with formal jobs and elementary and high school education. These results are robust to the inclusion of different exclusion restrictions and even after accounting for industry-level growth which was strong during the period studied.Item Metadata only Do preferential trade agreements favor the liberalization of trade with non-members? The case of the Andean Community(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2021-12-15) Castillo Thorne, Lakshmi IsabelThe theoretical literature has not reached a consensus on the effect of PTAs on multilateral liberalization. Empirical studies on this topic have been limited and, like theoretical studies, their results vary. The objective of this study is to find the effect of the Andean Community of Nations on the multilateral liberalization of Peru, by analyzing the variations in the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs applied to non-members as a consequence of the preferential tariff reductions applied by Peru to the members of this PTA. The units of analysis are the tariff lines disaggregated to 6 digits of the Harmonized System for the period 1992-2010. Results show that, for the entire study period, the Andean Community generated a building block. We divided the sample into two sub-periods: 1992-2001 and 2002-2010. For the first period the results show a building block effect; however, for the second half the results changed, and a stumbling block is found. Other variables are also added to observe their effects on changes in external tariffs, such as preferential imports, which, when they present a sizeable preferential margin, cause a reduction in MFN tariffs for the entire sample. Based on these results, we found that the Andean Community did not represent an impediment to multilateral liberalization in Peru.