Economía. Volumen 47 Número 93 (2024)

URI permanente para esta colecciónhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/200244

Tabla de Contenido
Presentation
  • Presentation Moreno, Rocío; León, Janina

    • Current Issue
  • From Cash to Deposits: Effects on Women’s Status andWell-being Marquez-Padilla, Fernanda; Parker, Susan W; 1-17
  • Peru 2020-2021: Household Income, Consumption, and Savings during the Pandemic Francke, Pedro; Benites Garnique, Josué; 18-56
  • Climate Risk Stress Test: Impact of Climate Change on the Peruvian Financial System Romero, Daniel; Salinas, Juan Carlos; Talledo, Jacqueline; 57-88
  • Savings, Investment, Terms of Trade, and Sustainability of the Internal Approach: 1993 - 2019 Villacampa Portuguez, Pablo Lorenzo; 89-124

    • Explorar

    Filtros

    20241

    Ajustes

    Temasearch.filters.applied.operator.equals: search.filters.subject.CMIP6

    Resultados de Búsqueda

    Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
    • No hay miniatura disponible
      ÍtemTexto completo enlazado
      Climate Risk Stress Test: Impact of Climate Change on the Peruvian Financial System
      (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2024-06-20) Romero, Daniel; Salinas, Juan Carlos; Talledo, Jacqueline
      We develop the first climate risk Stress Test for the Peruvian financial system following a topdown approach. Focusing on the microeconomic channel, we evaluate how heavy rainfall and droughts, under a scenario of pure physical risk, will marginally affect the probability of default (PD) of borrowers by 2050. Using information from the Credit Registry, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and CMIP6 precipitation projections (37 modeling groups), we calibrate the marginal impacts differentiating by economic sector and geographical location. We find that, on average, by December 2050, the probability of default of the Peruvian financial system would increase by 4.9% with respect to December 2020. By geographic area, borrowers located on the northern coast (Piura, Lambayeque) and the southern highlands (Ayacucho, Cusco) would be negatively affected by heavy rainfall, while the rainforest (Madre de Dios, Ucayali) would be negatively affected by droughts. Moreover, the economic sectors affected by heavy rainfall or droughts would be agriculture, commerce, and transportation & communications.