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Análisis del comportamiento electoral en la ciudad de Cali utilizando fuzzy sets. Elecciones para la alcaldía municipal 2003-2011
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2015) Abadía, Adolfo A.; Milanese, Juan Pablo
This paper aims to demystify, empirically, a statement widely shared in the political imaginary of the citizens of Santiago de Cali: candidates, who predominate in the popular sectors of the population, are the ones who win the elections for mayor («Aguablanca elects the mayor»). From an analysis with Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) in their mode of fuzzy sets, it is shown that there are more complex scenarios of the electoral behavior in the elections for the municipal mayor in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Starting from this premise, from a«sociological perspective» it is proposed a classification of the strata of the city according to the pooled weighted average and candidate as elite/non elite, to analyze the electoral trends in terms of political preferences of each stratum. It also seeks to identify causal combinations that consents the election of a mayor, taking into account variables such as the profil elite/non elite of the candidates, levels of fragmentation in both segments of candidatures and finally, the dominance that each achieved in the different communes of the city.
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El éxito de Francis Allison en el distrito de Magdalena del Mar (2002-2014). Un análisis empírico de la ventaja del incumbente a nivel subnacional
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2015) Becerra, María Gracia; Augusto, María Claudia; Retamozo, Diego; Ugaz, Sergio
The peruvian political system is characterized by incumbent’s low reelection rates at sub-national level, in that sense, incumbency has been qualified as a disadvantage to politicians in search of reelection. Owing to that, the existence of some cases of mayors that have managed to stay in office for multiple periods of government is surprising; Magdalena del Mar is an exam- ple of it. In this district, Francis Allison has attained reelection in three consecutive elections, obtaining high percentages of vote. For that reason, the present article seeks to explain Allison’s trajectory in the office of district mayor, through political strategies analysis used to manage continuity in office and citizens’ perceptions of themselves. The importance of attributes linked to incumbency are stressed; in that sense, Allison’s success comes from his capacity to satisfy ci- tizens’ needs (using formal and informal governance mechanisms) and from his political ability. To succeeding its aim, the investigation has recourse to data compilation about the municipality; semi-structured interviews to government employees and key actors in civil society; and stratified multistage surveys in the district.
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El conflicto político como mecanismo de legitimización de alcaldes provinciales. Análisis de los casos de Arequipa (2002) y Espinar (2012)
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2015) Hurtado, Verónica
In the current Peruvian context, the provincial mayors face serious problems to remain inoffice or to pursue a future political race. In this scenario, the social conflicts arise as an alternative for obtaining such legitimacy; however, depending on the type of participation adopted, the mayor could or could not be benefited from such an opportunity. The paper presents an analysis of the participation of those authorities in social conflicts and its effects on his political career.It is argued that the participatory scheme, which provides a clear firmness in support of demands immediately; but, at the same time, the ability to negotiate with the State; would yield the expected political revenue. On the other hand, if the authority is very weak or very radical, his attempts to use the social conflict to their advantage could fail. To test this hypothesis, I studied the conflicts of Arequipa in 2002 and Espinar in 2012.
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Corrupción a nivel local en Brasil: ¿la descentralización como un obstáculo?
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2015) Melo Aranha, Ana Luiza
Recently, Brazil has undergone decentralization processes that could have strengthened the local level in democratic terms. Notwithstanding, the results of these processes were not con-sensual, and corruption persisted as a feature of the Brazilian local level.This paper focuses on the corrupt conduct of municipal public officials who deal with fe- deral funds transferred by the central government. The information collected is part of a profile of corruption in the cities monitored by the federal Executive, revealing both how this phenomenon is distributed in terms of areas and which possible factors can explain the occurrence of corrup- tion in the Brazilian local governments. This paper deals with corruption in the municipalities of Minas Gerais - one of the 26 Brazilian states - from a conception of corruption as the misuse offunds by the political system.The argument focuses on the conduct of municipal public officials who deal with federalfunds transferred to Minas Gerais´ municipalities. In order to conduct this study, we used the reports from the Program of Inspections from Public Lotteries produced by the Office of the Comp- troller General (CGU). First, we built a general profile of the situation in those cities surveyed by the CGU regarding the incidence of irregularities. By doing so, we highlighted which gover- nmental areas would be in a more critical situation. These irregularities, in turn, were taken as proxies for the occurrence of corruption in two different ways. In the first place, according to the amount of irregularities found – which included all kind of irregularities, from formal mistakes to overbilling –, statistical tests were performed in order to establish which factors could be taken as constraints of corruption at the local level. We identified political, social, economic and demo- graphic characteristics that were associated with corruption, in its petty form. On the other hand, we also categorized corruption in a more strict way, considering only the cases in which larger amounts of resources were involved and leaving out the formal irregularities.We demonstrated that not all factors related with corruption in its broader sense (population size, the characteristic of the transfers, municipal characteristics related to income, education and control) kept significantly associated with the incidence of more severe irregularities. We seek to contribute to the debate about whether or not the local level is more susceptible to corruption, which means discussing if decentralization can be understood as a pitfall.
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La relación nacional-departamental en Bolivia: una mirada multinivel al nuevo escenario político del país
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2015) Ascarrunz, Julio
This article focuses on party competition in Bolivia from a multilevel approach with department (intermediate level) as the territorial unit of analysis from 2005 to 2015. The objective is to demonstrate the (in)congruence of an institutional level overlooked by the literature on multilevel studies, for which two indices of measurement are used: Summary Measure of Congruence (Gibson and Suarez-Cao 2010) in a one version and Dissimilarity Index (Johnston 1980) in two versions, nationally aggregated and departmentally disaggregated, with voting data from all competing parties (DISa) and only from those with double competition (DISb). The argument handled is that if an institutional level is important enough to be introduced to the electoral framework of a country, it should also be important enough for academic interest, especially in their relation with the rest of the system. From this, the study concluded that the importance of this institutional level depends on the degree of autonomy it has and the interest of the partisan actors and regional elites.

Vol. 06 Núm. 10 (2015)

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