Volumen 43 Número 85 (2020)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/175936

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  • Presentation Rodríguez, Gabriel

    • Articles
  • A Short Term Forecasting Model for the Spanish GDP and its Demand Components Arencibia Pareja, Ana; Gomez-Loscos, Ana; de Luis López, Mercedes; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel; 1-30
  • The Unofficial Vicereine of Río de la Plata: a Trans-Imperial Mediator in the Global War, 1797–1810 Besseghini, Deborah; 31-46
  • Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence De la Cruz, Jennifer; 47-64
  • The Consequences of a Grabbing Hand: Five Selected Ways in Which Corruption Affects the Economy Urbina, Dante A; 65-88

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      Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence
      (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2020-04-22) De la Cruz, Jennifer
      Financial systems around the world have undergone considerable development. This paper analyzes the effect of financial development on economic growth. It replicates the estimation of Beck et al. (2000), one of the pioneering research papers in this field. Then, it tests the sensibility of the results by expanding the sample of countries (99) and the period (1961–2010). This study contributes to the literature by analyzing differentiated effects when a country’s economic conditions are incorporated. The results show that the positive impact of financial development on economic growth found by Beck et al. (2000) becomes non-significant if financial crises and macroeconomic instability periods are taken into account. However, if income per capita level is considered, the impact becomes positive and significant in high-income countries and decreases in low-income per capita countries. This impact is influenced by each country’s level of education, level of financial deepening, and average inflation rate over the last ten years.
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      A Short Term Forecasting Model for the Spanish GDP and its Demand Components
      (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2020-03-10) Arencibia Pareja, Ana; Gomez-Loscos, Ana; de Luis López, Mercedes; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
      This paper proposes a new version of the Spain-STING (Spain, Short-Term INdicator of Growth), a dynamic factor model used by the Banco de España for the short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy. The extended and revised version of the Spain-STING presented in this document includes a forecast for each of the demand components of the National Accounts. In order to select the indicators that best estimate the Spanish GDP and its demand components, several models are considered. Following this strategy, the selected models are those in which the common factor explains the highest proportion of the variance of the GDP. These models allow us to forecast GDP, private consumption, public expenditure, investment in capital goods, construction investment, exports and imports in a consistent way. We assess the predictive power of the models for GDP and its demand components for the period 2005–2017. With regard to the GDP forecast, we find some improvement of the predictive power compared to the previous version of Spain-STING. As for the demand components, we show that our proposal has better predictive power than other possible time series models.
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      The Consequences of a Grabbing Hand: Five Selected Ways in Which Corruption Affects the Economy
      (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2020-06-18) Urbina, Dante A.
      This article provides a survey of the existing literature on the effects of corruption on economic growth, foreign direct investment, income inequality, human development, and natural resources sector. Both the theoretical arguments and the empirical evidence are considered. It is found that: i) Several studies support a negative impact of corruption on growth (sand the wheel hypothesis), but there are also studies supporting a positive impact (grease the wheels hypothesis); ii) Concerning the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment, the evidence is also mixed since there are studies supporting a negative effect (the “grabbing hand” view), a positive effect (the “helping hand” view), and even no significant effect; iii) The great majority of studies find that corruption generates more income inequality, although some studies find an inverse relationship in regions where the informal sector is large; iv) There is a strong consensus regarding that corruption hampers human development by affecting aspects like poverty, education and health; v) Most of studies show that there is a direct association between corruption and the natural resources sector, especially in the mining, oil and gas industries. In addition, research challenges of economics of corruption in aspects like the definition of corruption, multidisciplinary perspective, econometric specification, and data issues are discussed.
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      The Unofficial Vicereine of Río de la Plata: a Trans-Imperial Mediator in the Global War, 1797–1810
      (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2020-02-11) Besseghini, Deborah
      This article traces the story of one of the most significant unofficial mediators in the context of the imperial reconfiguration of the Atlantic World between the late 18th and early 19th centuries. The protagonist was a woman of many identities, loyalties, experiences, and allegiances, who stood at the center of business and family networks of global dimension. Of French descent, married to an Irishman, and naturalized a Spanish subject in Buenos Aires, “Anita” Périchon was able tostrike a balance between British and Hispanic-American imperial and personal interests. Wellknown in Argentina as the mistress of Viceroy Liniers, this article focuses on the role she played in the system of corruption that allowed British merchants to conduct business in Río de la Plata between the June 1808 alliance of Britain and anti-French Spain and the legal opening of direct trade with the British in Buenos Aires in November 1809.