Spillover Effects Among Gold, Stocks, and Bonds

Abstract

In this paper an attempt is made to document the interdependence among stocks, bonds and gold. Gold is an important asset class and has often been seen as a safe haven and counter-cyclical investment vehicle. We present an extension of the work done by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) using a spillover index methodology to examine whether gold returns and volatilities can predict U.S. stock and bond market movements or vice versa. For the sample period from January 1970 until April 2009, return spillovers appear muted. However, there is some evidence of volatility spillovers of which much is attributable to a spillover from innovations in stocks to bond return volatility. Spillovers in terms of returns are higher during the early 1980s, mid-1990s and the most recent financial crisis. Volatility spillovers have been very elevated in the recent financial crisis as well as late 1970s and early 1990s. The lack of any substantial relationship between gold and stocks and gold and bonds raises the question whether gold price movements can be used as a predictor for stocks and bond prices.