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Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-02)
This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peruís main
macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination
with an identification scheme ...
Estimation of the Sovereign Yield Curve of Peru: The Role of Macroeconomic and Latent Factors
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2017-03)
The study of the yield curve has been a topic that interested economists for a long time since the term structure of interest rates is an important transmission channel of monetary policy to inflation and real activity. ...
Approximate bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility in mean models using hidden Markov models: empirical evidence from stock Latin American markets
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2021-10)
The stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model proposed by Koopman and Uspensky (2002) is revisited. This paper has two goals. The first is to offer a methodology that requires less computational time in simulations and ...
Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-02)
This paper discusses the evolution of monetary policy (MP) in Peru in 1996Q1-2016Q4 using a
mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility
(TVP-VAR-SV) as proposed by ...
Time-Varying Impact of Fiscal Shocks over GDP Growth in Peru: An Empirical Application using Hybrid TVP-VAR-SV Models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-04)
This paper estimates hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models suggested by Chan and Eisentat (2018a) in
order to identify and quantify the impact of fiscal shocks on the GDP growth of Peru during 1995-
2018. According to Bayesian criteria, ...
Stochastic Volatility in Mean. Empirical Evidence from Stock Latin American Markets
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-02)
Using a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model, we perform an empirical study of live Latin
American indexes in order to see the impact of the volatility in the mean of the returns. We
use MCMC Hamiltonian dynamics. ...
Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-01)
This study assesses the evolving impact of fiscal policy on Peru’s economic activity in 1993Q4-2018Q2 using unrestricted and restricted TVP-VAR-SV models according to the approach proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018a). ...
Modelling the volatility of commodities prices using a stochastic volatility model with random level shifts
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-03)
We use the approach of Qu and Perron (2013) for the modeling and inference of volatility of a set
of commodity prices in the presence of level shifts of unknown timing, magnitude and frequency.
The model has two features: ...
Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-03)
This article quantifies and analyzes the evolving impact of external shocks on Peru’s macroeconomic fluctuations in 1994Q1-2019Q4. For this purpose, we use a group of models with regimeswitching time-varying parameters and ...
Does the Central Bank of Peru respond to exchange rate movements? a bayesian estimation of a new keynesian DSGE model with FX interventions
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2021-12)
This paper assess the role played by the exchange rate and FX intervention in setting monetary
policy interest rates in Peru. We estimate a Taylor rule that includes inflation, output gap and
the exchange rate using a ...