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La economía peruana en vísperas del bicentenario de la independencia
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, Abr-2018)
Presentamos una interpretación sintética de la economía peruana, desde una perspectiva histórica. Resaltamos su naturaleza dual, entre un sector de subsistencia y uno exportador, este último más pequeño demográficamente ...
Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-02)
This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peruís main
macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination
with an identification scheme ...
Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-02)
This paper discusses the evolution of monetary policy (MP) in Peru in 1996Q1-2016Q4 using a
mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility
(TVP-VAR-SV) as proposed by ...
Does the Central Bank of Peru respond to exchange rate movements? a bayesian estimation of a new keynesian DSGE model with FX interventions
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2021-12)
This paper assess the role played by the exchange rate and FX intervention in setting monetary
policy interest rates in Peru. We estimate a Taylor rule that includes inflation, output gap and
the exchange rate using a ...
Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2019-12)
Presidential approval in Peru depends on economic outcomes. However, voters are unable to distinguish between outcomes resulting from economic policies and those caused by exogenous shocks.
Estimation results from seven ...
Time-Varying Impact of Fiscal Shocks over GDP Growth in Peru: An Empirical Application using Hybrid TVP-VAR-SV Models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-04)
This paper estimates hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models suggested by Chan and Eisentat (2018a) in
order to identify and quantify the impact of fiscal shocks on the GDP growth of Peru during 1995-
2018. According to Bayesian criteria, ...
Teaching Modern Macroeconomics in the Mundell-Fleming Language: The IS-MPR-UIP-AD-AS Model
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2017-09)
The traditional open aggregate demand and aggregate supply model backed by the Mundell-Fleming model, together with the supply curve that relates the price level to the output gap, should be abandoned in undergraduate ...
Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-03)
This article quantifies and analyzes the evolving impact of external shocks on Peru’s macroeconomic fluctuations in 1994Q1-2019Q4. For this purpose, we use a group of models with regimeswitching time-varying parameters and ...
La economía de PPK. Promesas y resultados: la distancia que los separa
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2017-05)
¿Qué pasará con la economía peruana durante el gobierno de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK)? ¿Es verosímil el compromiso oficial de elevar la tasa de crecimiento del PBI a 5 por ciento anual a partir de 2019? A pesar que ...
Time-varying effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: an empirical application using TVP-VAR- SV models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-03)
This study uses a family of VAR models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility
(TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on output growth and inflation in Peru in
1992Q1-2017Q1. The statistical ...