Economía (Dr.)

URI permanente para esta colecciónhttp://54.81.141.168/handle/123456789/31253

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  • Ítem
    Natural resources, corruption, human development, economic growth, prices of minerals and fiscal fluctuations
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2021-11-25) Urbina Padilla, Dante Abelardo; Rodríguez Briones, Gabriel Hender
    This thesis analyzes issues related to natural resources, corruption, human development, economic growth, prices of minerals and fiscal fluctuations. It is composed of two studies. The first one analyzes the effects of corruption on economic growth, human development and natural resources in Latin American and Nordic countries using a Bayesian panel VAR model. The results reveal some relevant contrasts between both groups of countries: (i) in Latin America there is support for the sand the wheels hypothesis in Bolivia and Chile, support for the grease the wheels hypothesis in Colombia and no significant impact of corruption on growth in Brazil and Peru. By contrast, the response of growth to shocks in corruption is significantly negative in most of periods in all Nordic countries; (ii) corruption negatively affects human development in all countries from both regions; (iii) corruption tends to spur natural resources sector in Latin American countries, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Peru. By contrast, corruption is detrimental for the activity of natural resources sector in all Nordic countries. Furthermore, results for the full sample, Latin American and Nordic countries are obtained from two alternative approaches, namely, a Panel Error Correction VAR model and an Asymmetric Panel VAR model. The second study analyzes the evolution of the effects of fluctuations in mineral commodity prices on fiscal variables, especially those associated with fiscal revenues, in Peru by means of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV). Different alternative specifications are compared using the marginal likelihood and the deviance information criterion. It is found that an increase of 1% in the growth of mineral commodity prices generates increases of around 1.5% and 2.5% in the growth of taxes from mining and mining canon, respectively, thus reflecting a remarkable sensitivity of these variables to external shocks. In turn, these responses are increasingly more pronounced until reaching a peak around 2009 and then decrease, which is in line with the dynamics of the commodities boom. In the variance decomposition, the importance of shocks in mineral commodity prices in explaining fluctuations in taxes from mining and mining canon increases in line with the increasing tendency of mineral prices until the Great Recession, where shocks in mineral commodity prices explain between 40% and 50% of fluctuations in taxes from mining and mining canon, and then it is reduced. This shows the importance of allowing time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility in contrast with a standard VAR.
  • Ítem
    Acción colectiva, gestión del agua de riego y agroexportación en la costa peruana
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2021-01-22) Muñoz Portugal, Gerrmán Guillermo Ismael; Glave Testino, Manuel Augusto
    Esta tesis se conforma de dos estudios relacionados con el problema del agua de riego en la agricultura y economía peruana. El primero analiza los factores de sostenibilidad de la acción colectiva en la gestión del agua de riego en los valles de Moche y Virú, situados en la costa del Perú. Utilizando un modelo de panel de efectos aleatorios, el análisis econométrico encontró que las variables relevantes para la sostenibilidad de la acción colectiva son diferentes en cada valle. El resultado económico se mide por la eficacia en el cobro de la tarifa de agua de riego y capacidad transferida por el Estado a las Juntas de Usuarios. Destaca, además, la importancia del proyecto de irrigación Chavimochic, que amplió la disponibilidad de agua en forma permanente, pero que enfrenta también los efectos del cambio climático, así como el incremento de la demanda hídrica. El segundo estudio analiza el crecimiento económico agroexportador en el valle de Ica, que ha traído consigo la concentración de la tierra y de las fuentes de agua subterránea. Este proceso ha dado mayor poder a las empresas agroexportadoras, las cuales responden individualmente a la demanda del mercado internacional. El incremento en la demanda externa de los productos del valle genera importantes beneficios privados, pero inhibe la acción colectiva para la conservación del acuífero. Cada empresa decide la cantidad de pozos a perforar y el volumen de agua subterránea que debe extraer, dados los requerimientos técnicos de los cultivos y ante una débil regulación pública. La mayor extracción con respecto a la reserva y disponibilidad de agua lleva a un descenso del volumen del acuífero, a un deterioro del recurso común y a la consecuente escasez. La metodología de investigación ha seguido el enfoque de la economía institucional para analizar las interrelaciones entre lo social, lo tecnológico y las políticas públicas en el valle de Ica, buscando situarse en una perspectiva interdisciplinaria.
  • Ítem
    Climate variability and rural livelihoods in the peruvian Andes : Variabilidad climática y diversificación de ingresos de los hogares en los Andes peruanos
    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2020-11-24) Ponce San Román, Carmen María; Iguíñiz Echeverría, Javier María; Escobal D'Angelo, Javier Alfredo
    This thesis aims to understand some of the effects of changes in intra-seasonal climate variability on household livelihoods in the Peruvian Andes. Concerns about the effects of climate change on the sustainability of Andean agricultural systems and, in general, concerns about the ability of rural households to adapt to increasing climate uncertainty motivate this thesis. The first study focuses on household decisions over crop portfolio diversification as a response to increasing climate variability. The study investigates whether Andean farmers respond by increasing crop diversity (measured by intercropping and crop diversification indices) or by switching to crops that better tolerate diverse environmental conditions. Based on fixed effects models that use a district panel of 1994 and 2012 agrarian censuses, the study finds that households in colder areas (<11˚C during the crop growing season) adapt to increases in climate variability by concentrating their portfolio into more tolerant crops and reducing intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region (more indigenous, less integrated to markets). Taking a broader approach, the second study focuses on Andean rural households in general, investigating whether households adapt to increasing climate variability by concentrating more into non-farm income generating activities (relative to farm activities), and whether spatially distant family networks facilitate this adaptive strategy. Six economic outcomes are modeled in this study: non-farm income shares, non-farm working hours share, farm and nonfarm income levels, and farm and non-farm working hours. Based on generalized linear models that use household information representative of rural provinces of the Andean region, the study finds that households adapt differently across the region. While households in the colder areas of the Central and Northern Andes (below 13˚C during the crop growing season) tend to increase non-farm income as climate variability increases, households in the South show no discernible response. The study results suggest that spatially distant family networks facilitate non-farm opportunities to households facing increasing temperature variability in the Central and Southern Andes. This thesis complements previous studies by providing robust and regionally representative evidence on households’ nonlinear response to climate variability. Furthermore, given that Andean households received little-to-no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about household autonomous adaptation to climate change and raises concerns on current adaptation responses that may hamper the sustainability of Andean household livelihoods in the face of climate change.