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Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2023-08)
We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-
SV), as proposed ...
Evolution of the exchange rate pass-throught into prices in Peru: an empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-05)
We use a set of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VARSV) to estimate the evolution of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices for Peru
over 1995Q2-2019Q4. According to two ...
Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2020-02)
Seven GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models are used to model and compare empirically
the volatility of returns on four commodities: gold, copper, oil, and natural gas. The results
show evidence of fat tails and ...
External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2024-01)
We employ a family of mixture innovation, time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on Peru’s GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate from 1998Q1 ...
Threshold Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails: A Bayesian Approach
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2019-09-16)
This paper extends the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model specification proposed in So et al. (2002) and Chen et al. (2008) by incorporating thick-tails in the mean equation innovation using the scale mixture of ...
An Empirical Application of a Random Level Shifts Model with Time-Varying Probability and Mean Reversion to the Volatility of Latin-American Forex Markets Returns
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-03)
Following Xu and Perron (2014), this paper uses daily data for six Forex Latin American markets. Four models of the family of the Random Level Shift (RLS) model are estimated: a basic model where probabilities of level ...
Option Pricing Models with HF Data: An Application of the Black Model to the WIG20 Index
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. CENTRUM, 2012)
In this paper, we compared several Black option pricing models by applying different measures of volatility and examined the Black model with historical (BHV), implied (BIV), and several different types of realized (BRV) ...
Time-varying effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: an empirical application using TVP-VAR- SV models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2022-03)
This study uses a family of VAR models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility
(TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on output growth and inflation in Peru in
1992Q1-2017Q1. The statistical ...
Time evolution of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2022-03)
This article provides empirical evidence on the evolution of the impact of external shocks on the
macroeconomic dynamics of the Pacific Alliance (PA) countries. For this purpose, we estimate
a family of VAR models that ...
Modelling the volatility of commodities prices using a stochastic volatility model with random level shifts
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía, 2016-03)
We use the approach of Qu and Perron (2013) for the modeling and inference of volatility of a set
of commodity prices in the presence of level shifts of unknown timing, magnitude and frequency.
The model has two features: ...