(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2011) Lavanda, Guillermo; Rodríguez, Gabriel
This paper analyzes and distinguishes the role and importance of the shocks related to the aggregate demand and aggregate supply on the behavior of the Peruvian inflation during the period 1997:1-2009:2. We use the methodology based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models using a long-run identification based on Blanchard and Quah (1989) which allows to obtain the historical decomposition of the annual inflation. Unlike Salas (2009), this paper uses a more simple model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and a larger sample. The results show that the behavior of inflation was largely explained for shocks related to the aggregate demand side in comparison with aggregate supply shocks. Furthermore, the results of the variance decomposition of the prediction error show that in the short and long term, the shocks of the demand side explain around 70% and 60% of the movements of the inflation. The results are robust to the inclusion of different variables in the set of information.
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2011) García Núñez, Luis
In recent years the program evaluation methods have become very popular in applied microeconomics. However, the variety of these methods responds to specific problems, which are normally determined by the data available and the impact the researcher tries to measure. This paper summarizes the main methods in the current literature, emphasizing the assumptions under which the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect on the treated are identified. Additionally, after each section I briefly present some applications of these methods. This document is a didactic presentation for advanced students in economics and applied researchers who wish to learn the basics of these techniques
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2011-05-30) Vizcarra, Catalina
La experiencia del Perú con la deuda externa durante el boom de la era del guano es una de las más notables en el siglo XIX. A pesar de la continua inestabilidad política y de la pobre reputación en los mercados financieros, el precio de los bonos peruanos se incrementó después de 1849 y el país disfrutó de riesgo de crédito relativamente bajo hasta 1870. Este artículo analiza los incentivos que Perú y sus acreedores enfrentaron y explica cómo el rendimiento extraordinario de Perú se fundó en su compromiso creíble de honrar su deuda con los ingresos del guano.Palabras clave: deuda externa, Perú, siglo XIX, guano
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2011) Zegarra, Luis Felipe
This article relies on linear programming to calculate the extreme poverty line between 1913 and 1925. Using several sources, I estimate the minimum amount of income that a family had to earn in order to afford its basic feeding needs. Our estimations indicate that the minimum basket of foodstuff was afforded with a little more than a sol per day before the First World War, and that the cost of such basket increased to more than twice toward the end of the war. A comparison with the salaries of the period indicates that in Lima a large number of workers could afford the basket of basic foodstuff of their families, especially if more than one member of the family received wages; but that such ability largely declined by the end of the 1910s
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2011) Rivera, Iván
Can we become a developed country in a generation? Yes, if we implement the following reforms. Sustain macroeconomic stability. Sustain commercial and financial openness to become the source of sustained economic growth. Complement openness with the following reforms: improvements in human capital via increases in the quality of education and health, increase in private investment via improvement in the investment climate and complementary infrastructure, financial deepening and labor market reform. A new source of growth is the promotion of a broad entrepreneurial middle class via the elimination of the distortions in the productive structure that have induced the increase of informality and the concentration of entrepreneurship in microenterprises and in a low productivity services sector. The elimination of distortions in the tax system, the social security system and the labor market will increase the demand for quality labor and the improvements in human capital will increase its supply and induce the emergence of a broad entrepreneurial middle class. Finally, for this entrepreneurial middle class to emerge, we have to reform the estate to eradicate corruption, reduce crime and to create a predictable and fair judicial system to defend property rights including compliance with commercial contracts.
(Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Fondo Editorial, 2011) Vega-Centeno, Máximo
This paper aims to set decision framework for the earthquake preventions measures. The starting point is the differences between the natural phenomenon and the disaster; although both have frequency in common, the last one is more unpredictable, but in both cases is a question to make probability estimation. In other words, the earthquakes in Peru appear suddenly and they are an inevitable and repetitive phenomenon. According to that, a better prevention measures can be taken, in order to reduce the economical impact, mainly for the lower income people and improving the quality of life for them in social and human terms. Under such conditions, the absences of an adequate policy on this matter make people unsure about their future and this is a brake for human development
